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NLP Analysis of Political Discourse

Macron and French Diplomacy

What the ambassadors speech analysis reveals

January 8, 2026

Antoine Lemor | NLP-POL PROJECT

Methodology

Annual Ambassadors Conference at the Elysee - January 8, 2026

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Analysis

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359
Sentences analyzed
119
Political sentences
560
Actor mentions
264
Geopolitical frames
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Dashboard

5 composite indices from 359 analyzed sentences

Key finding
An optimistic but pragmatic vision of France in the world: proactive partner, cautious leader, defender of the multilateral order against threats
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Finding: a doctrine of pragmatic assertion

Overview

Balanced vision

A GAI of +0.08 reveals a vision that is neither alarmist nor euphoric. Macron frames challenges without catastrophism.

+0.08 Geopolitical index

France as actor

With 85% agency, France is presented as proactive, not reactive to events.

85% Agency

Programmatic policies

45% concreteness: proposals remain at strategic rather than operational level.

45% Concreteness

Neutral tone

A tonality close to zero (-0.01) indicates a pragmatic register, neither alarmist nor triumphalist.

-0.01 Tonality
Analysis #1

The speech at a glance

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Sentence-by-Sentence Emotional Evolution
Positive
Neutral
Negative

Hover over the chart to see each sentence with its tone, speech act and frame

Finding: dominant pragmatism, targeted combative peaks

Emotional register evolution

Dominant register

Pragmatic (30%) and confident (21%) tones dominate the entire speech.

51% Pragmatic + Confident

Combative peaks

12% of the speech adopts a combative tone, focused on specific subjects (defense, sovereignty).

12% Combative

Alarmist passages

Only 7% of the speech is alarmist - reserved for the most serious threats.

7% Alarmist

Overall tonality

The score of -0.01 indicates a balance between positive and negative registers.

-0.01 Tonality index
Analysis #2

What vision of the world?

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Geopolitical frames at a glance

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Geopolitical frames
359 sentences
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All excerpts
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Finding: opportunities before threats

Geopolitical framing

Threat frames (39%)

  • Power politics - 41 occurrences (16%)
  • Global disorder - 17 occurrences (7%)
  • Multilateral decline - 12 occurrences (5%)
  • Fragmentation - 11 occurrences (4%)
  • Vassalization - 7 occurrences (3%)

Opportunity frames (61%)

  • Cooperation - 58 occurrences (22%)
  • Resilience - 30 occurrences (12%)
  • Progress - 15 occurrences (6%)
  • Leadership opportunity - 14 occurrences (5%)
  • Multilateral renewal - 10 occurrences (4%)
Interpretation
The "cooperation" frame dominates: Macron presents challenges as partnership opportunities rather than existential threats.
Analysis #3

How are actors presented?

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Sentiment towards actors

560 mentions analyzed β€” Click an actor to see the excerpts

Overall sentiment index
+0.66
Positive view of actors
Positive
Neutral
Negative

Finding: allies valued, major powers nuanced

560 mentions analyzed
Actor Mentions Positive Negative Net sentiment
France1661154+0.67
Europe/EU61343+0.51
United States1745-0.06
China1205-0.42
Ukraine860+0.75
India860+0.75
Interpretation
Neutral treatment of the USA (-0.06), negative of China (-0.42). Ukraine and India emerge as privileged strategic partners.
Analysis #4

What policies are proposed?

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Policy proposals, mapped

119 political sentences β€” Click on a domain to explore the excerpts

Policy ambition
A strategic agenda: 24% diplomatic method, 56% programmatic, only 3% concrete measures
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Specificity level

Finding: diplomatic method first

119 sentences classified with political content

Specificity level

% of sentences with political content

  • Programmatic - 67 sentences (56%)
  • Aspirational - 48 sentences (40%)
  • Concrete - 4 sentences (3%)

Very few concrete and operational measures.

Priority domains

% of sentences with political content

  • Diplomatic method - 29 sentences (24%)
  • European economy - 9 sentences (8%)
  • Global governance - 8 sentences (7%)
  • Africa relations - 7 sentences (6%)
  • Trade policy - 7 sentences (6%)
Interpretation
The emphasis on "diplomatic method" (24% of political sentences) reveals a priority on how rather than what: the way of negotiating takes precedence over content.
Analysis #5

What rhetorical strategy?

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Rhetorical strategy

Explore speech acts and rhetorical devices together

Dominant act
β€”
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Speech acts
Rhetorical devices
Quotes

Finding: balance between diagnosis and action

537 speech acts

Speech acts

  • Stating - 109 (20%)
  • Proposing - 76 (14%)
  • Exhorting - 71 (13%)
  • Framing - 69 (13%)
  • Reassuring - 67 (12%)

Action orientation

Action / (action + diagnostic) ratio:

43%

Balance between situation analysis and calls to action

Interpretation
The speech combines diagnosis (stating, framing) and voluntarism (proposing, exhorting) in a near 50/50 balance.
Analysis #6

How is France positioned?

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France's positioning

304 positionings analyzed β€” Click to explore the excerpts

Agency index
85%
France as a proactive actor

Finding: active agent, not victim

304 positionings
193
Active
78
Cooperative
33
Reactive

Active agent (46%)

France is presented as initiating actions, not reacting to events.

Partner (23%)

Emphasis on cooperation and alliances rather than unilateralism.

Leader (8%)

Leadership positioning on key issues (Europe, climate, defense).

Victim (only 3%)

Near-absence of victimhood positioning - no complaint or fatalism.

Analysis #7

What diplomatic positioning?

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Diplomatic positioning: Us vs Them

How Macron frames different actor groups β€” Click to explore

Diplomatic framing
A clear distinction: allies valued (+0.59), emerging partners privileged (+0.75), major powers nuanced (-0.24)

Finding: Europe first, major powers nuanced

Actor groups

Allies (France, Europe)

Systematically positive treatment. European anchoring affirmed.

+0.59Average sentiment

Major powers

USA slightly negative (-0.06), China negative (-0.42). No automatic alignment.

-0.24Average sentiment

Emerging partners

Ukraine and India as new privileged strategic partners.

+0.75Average sentiment

Notable absence

Russia is rarely mentioned directly - framing by consequences rather than confrontation.

Conclusion

A doctrine of pragmatic assertion

Quantitative analysis reveals a diplomacy that combines realism about threats and voluntarism in action. Macron positions France as a proactive actor in a changing world, favoring partnerships and multilateral cooperation.

+0.08
Cautious vision
85%
Agency
61%
Opportunity frames

Antoine Lemor

github.com/antoinelemor

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