Publications

2025

1. Forthcoming

   Science, jugement humain et décisions de politiques publiques en temps de COVID-19

   Éric Montpetit, and Antoine Lemor

   in Faire preuve : comment nos sociétés distinguent le vrai du faux, by Prud’homme, Julien and Kao, Molly, Presses de l’Université de Montréal, 2025

   Abs

   This chapter explores the relationship between science, human judgment, and public policy during the COVID-19 pandemic. It highlights that, contrary to a prevailing rhetoric that policy decisions can be strictly science-based, the reality is far more complex. Political decisions are influenced by a blend of scientific evidence and human judgment, which includes instincts, beliefs, and attitudes. The chapter examines how scientific evidence is used in policymaking and emphasizes that such use is inevitably filtered through political debate and human judgment. Key examples from the COVID-19 crisis illustrate this interplay. Early in the pandemic, despite limited knowledge about the virus, drastic measures like lockdowns were implemented, influenced by both scientific evidence and political judgment. Disagreements among scientists, such as those between John Ioannidis and Marc Lipsitch, further underscore how different interpretations of evidence can lead to varying policy recommendations. These disagreements often stem from differing risk perceptions and underlying beliefs, demonstrating that even within the scientific community, human judgment plays a crucial role. The chapter concludes that separating policy decisions from their political and psychological contexts is impractical. Instead, it advocates for recognizing and valuing the role of human judgment in policymaking, acknowledging that science and politics are intertwined in complex ways

2024

1. Revise and Resubmit

   Beyond Evidence: How Framing Shapes Public Health Policies During Health Crises

   Antoine Lemor, and Éric Montpetit

   Policy Studies Journal, 2024

   Abs

   This study investigates how framing, evidence, and the roles of scientists and political decisionmakers in policymaking influence public health policy decisions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Quebec and Sweden. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset of press conference transcripts, we apply natural language processing (NLP) to assess the impact of different framings on suppression and mitigation policies. Our analysis reveals that framing affects policy decisions, often independent of evidence. In Quebec, where political decisionmakers were central, a Dangerous framing, which emphasizes the severe health threats of COVID-19, is associated with an increase in stringent suppression policies, even in the absence of strong evidence. In contrast, Sweden’s policy process, characterized by scientific autonomy, required high levels of evidence for the Dangerous framing to impact suppression policies. A Moderate framing, balancing societal benefits and virus risks, promoted mitigation policies when supported by strong evidence, with variations between jurisdictions. These findings illustrate that the framing of a health crisis can be as influential as evidence, with distinct implications for the role of political and scientific actors. This study contributes to public policy literature by highlighting the relationship between framing, evidence, and the differentiated roles of policymakers and scientists in the policymaking process during health emergencies.

2. Accepted

   A Theory of Experts’ Influence Erosion Over Time: The Waining Hold of Epidemiological Projections’ During the COVID-19 Pandemic

   Antoine Lemor, M. Alejandra Costa, Louis-Robert Beaulieu-Guay, and Éric Montpetit

   Policy & Politics, 2024

   Abs

   In the face of protracted crises like climate change or pandemics, the influence of expert scientific projections on public policy is crucial yet evolves over time. This study offers an empirical demonstration of a previously fragmented theory: the diminishing influence of scientific projections on policy over time. Leveraging a comprehensive mixed-method analysis, we unveil the intricate interplay between expert projections, policy stringency, and public support during COVID-19 pandemic. Scientific projections that put forward worst-case scenarios have a considerable impact on policies made in the early stages of a crisis. However, as these catastrophic projections instill a sense of fatalism as the crisis lasts, they inadvertently lead to diminished public support for both the policies and the scientific projections themselves. The implications of these findings for scientists and experts are discussed, highlighting the importance of adapting projections and knowledge communication strategies as the crisis unfolds.

3. Governance

   Networks Dynamics in Public Health Advisory Systems: A Comparative Analysis of Scientific Advice for COVID-19 in Belgium, Quebec, Sweden and Switzerland

   Antoine Lemor, Éric Montpetit, Shoghig Téhinian, Clarisse Ven Belleghem, Steven Eichenberger, PerOla Öberg, Frédéric Varone, David Aubin, and Jean-Louis Denis

   Governance, 2024

   Abs DOI

   This study presents a dual-method approach to systematically analyze public health advisory networks during the COVID-19 pandemic across four jurisdictions: Belgium, Quebec, Sweden, and Switzerland. Using network analysis inspired by egocentric analysis and a subsystems approach adapted to public health, the research investigates network structures and their openness to new actors and ideas. The findings reveal significant variations in network configurations, with differences in density, centralization, and the role of central actors. The study also uncovers a relation between network openness and its structural attributes, highlighting the impact of network composition on the flow and control of expert advice. These insights into public health advisory networks contribute to understanding the interface between scientific advice and policymaking, emphasizing the importance of network characteristics in shaping the influence of expert advisors. The article underscores the relevance of systematic network descriptions in public policy, offering reflections on expert accountability, information diversity, and the broader implications for democratic governance.

4. Policy and Society

   Exploring the Role of Uncertainty, Emotions and Scientific Discourse during the COVID-19 Pandemic

   Antoine Lemor, and Éric Montpetit

   Policy and Society, 2024

   Abs DOI

   This article examines the interplay between uncertainty, emotions, and scientific discourse in shaping COVID-19 policies in Quebec, Canada. Through the application of natural language processing (NLP) techniques, indices were developped to measure sentiments of uncertainty among policymakers, their negative sentiments, and the prevalence of scientific statements. The study reveals that while sentiments of uncertainty led to the adoption of stringent policies, scientific statements and the evidence they conveyed were associated with a relaxation of such policies, as they offered reassurance and mitigated negative sentiments. Furthermore, the findings suggest that scientific statements encouraged stricter policies only in contexts of high uncertainty. This research contributes to the theoretical understanding of the interplay between emotional and cognitive dynamics in health crisis policymaking. It emphasizes the need for a nuanced understanding of how science may be used in the face of uncertainty, especially when democratic processes are set aside. Methodologically, it demonstrates the potential of NLP in policy analysis.

5. Revise and Resubmit

   Des Idées d’Extrême Droite à l’Assemblée Nationale? Étude Computationnelle sur la Prévalence de l’Idéologie d’Extrême Droite dans les Déclarations de Politique Générale à l’Assemblée Nationale

   Tristan Boursier, and Antoine Lemor

   Revue française de science politique, 2024

   Abs

   This study analyzes the prevalence of far-right ideas in the ‘general policy speech’ of French Prime Ministers since 1959 using Natural Language Processing (NLP) methods. Two main hypotheses are explored. The first hypothesis posits that the metapolitical strategy, theorized by the Nouvelle Droite since the 1970s, has enabled the gradual penetration of far-right ideas into French institutional discourse. The second hypothesis suggests that the center plays a key role in the success of such a strategy by acting as a polarizing structural force that facilitates the discursive integration of far-right ideology. To test these hypotheses, we create and introduce a Far-Right Ideological Score (FRIS) measuring the prevalence of far-right ideas in the speeches. The research findings reveal a significant increase in the prevalence of far-right ideas since 2005, and more broadly since the 1970s, reaching levels comparable to those observed during the Algerian War. Regression model analysis shows that the expansion of the center in parliament and the political affiliation of the Prime Minister are positively associated with the increase in FRIS. Additionally, centrist forces have a mitigating effect on the number of far-right deputies, tending to demonstrate an appropriation of far-right ideas by the center. These results confirm the hypothesis of a successful metapolitical strategy and highlight the crucial role of centrist forces in the normalization and dissemination of far-right ideas within French political institutions.

2022

1. Edward Elgar Publishing

   Listening to science in policy design: the contrasting cases of Quebec and Sweden during the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic

   Antoine Lemor, Louis-Robert Beaulieu-Guay, PerOla Öberg, and Éric Montpetit

   in Research Handbook of Policy Design, by Peters, B. Guy and Fontaine, Guillaume, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2022

   Abs DOI

   The COVID-19 pandemic has given science, scientific information, and health experts a prominent role in public policy design. However, political decisions are rarely automatically derived from scientific information or expertise. Political decisions are made of complex set of choices, balancing preferences and objectives that are sometimes difficult to reconcile. Moreover, all scientific information entails a degree of uncertainty, especially when dealing with a new problem like COVID-19. In turn, this uncertainty can be a source of discomfort when information is needed to inform a public policy decision. Finally, the interpretation of scientific information can be influenced by elements of contexts, institutional structures, and decision makers’ own risk assessment and tolerance. Thus, similar information can be perceived and used differently by policy designers. In this chapter, we focus on the role of information selection and processing in policy design by studying school closure decisions during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Faced with similar infection curves, Sweden and Quebec have made radically different decisions about school closures. While on March 1st 2020 Sweden decided to keep its schools open, on March 13th, Quebec decided to close them down. By drawing from public statements in the two jurisdictions between January and June 2021, we argue that the Swedish authorities have favoured information from the World Health Organization, whereas Quebec has relied more on foreign experiences. The interpretation of this different information and the attitudes towards risk and uncertainty have led the Swedish and Quebec governments to make radically different choices.